Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. Skeptics are those who dont believe everything they hear. The three modes (and a quick explanation of each) are: Preacher we hold a fundamentally inarguable idea that we will passionately express, protecting our ideals as sacred, Prosecutor we will pick apart the logic of the oppositions idea to prove our own point, marshaling the flaws in others, Politician we will sway a crowd or sway with a crowd to stay in a relative position of power, politicking for support. This book fills that need. Tetlock, P.E., Kristel, O., Elson, B., Green M., &Lerner, J. Through consultations and workshops, Tetlock and his colleagues have been working to improve decision-making by promoting the qualities necessary to accurately foresee the outcomes of certain decisions. Even a single idea can curb overconfidence. For millennia, great thinkers and scholars have been working to understand the quirks of the human mind. Author recommends twice a year personal checkups: opportunities to reassess your current pursuits, whether your current desires still align with your plans, and whether its time to pivot. [3] The original aim of the tournament was to improve geo-political and geo-economic forecasting. Tetlock has advanced variants of this argument in articles on the links between cognitive styles and ideology (the fine line between rigid and principled)[31][32] as well as on the challenges of assessing value-charged concepts like symbolic racism[33] and unconscious bias (is it possible to be a "Bayesian bigot"?). Opening story: Looks at Grants cousin, Ryan, who spent many years studying and training to become a neurosurgeon only to realize later that he wasnt thrilled with his career choice and investment in time. Pavel Atanasov, J. Witkowski, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock (Under Review), The person-situation debate revisited: Forecasting skill matters more than elicitation method. Tetlock, P. E. (1994). Opening story: Mike Lazaridis, the founder of the BlackBerry smartphone. Synopsis. 8 He went on to do his doctoral studies at Yale, where he obtained his Ph.D. in psychology in 1979. Psychologically unsafe settings hide errors to avoid penalties. ; Unmaking the West: What-if Scenarios that Rewrite World History; and Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. Rather than try to see things from someone elses point of view, talk to those people and learn directly from them. The others were Politicians - currying favour to try and win approval from colleagues. is a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock. Cons: The pattern of bookending every chapter with an anecdote gets tiresome. Deniers reject anything from the other side. They revert to preacher, prosecutor, and politician modes. Use a steel man (instead of straw man) and consider your opponents strongest argument. Although he too occasionally adopts this reductionist view of political psychology in his work, he has also raised the contrarian possibility in numerous articles and chapters that reductionism sometimes runs in reverseand that psychological research is often driven by ideological agenda (of which the psychologists often seem to be only partly conscious). Tetlock, P. E. (2011). As if at some point you become something and thats the end., Kids might be better off learning about careers as actions to take rather than as identities to claim.. The others might not agree with those arguments, but they are left defenseless and bitter. There are solid ideas in Think Again, but the presentation left this reader wanting. The concept of superforecasters was developed by The Good Judgment Project and is arguably their best-known discovery. In 1983, he was playing a gig. Harish must argue the unpopular position of being against subsidies (most of the audience starts with their minds made up for subsidies). capitalism and communism. Confident humility: An ideal wherein the individual has faith in their abilities but retains sufficient doubt and flexibility to recognize they could be wrong. Why do you think its correct? Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 3 likes Like "Here's a very simple example," says Annie Duke, an elite professional poker player, winner of the World Series of Poker, and a former PhD-level student of psychology. If necessary, discuss your orders. In one of historys great ironies, scientists today know vastly more than their colleagues a century ago, and possess vastly more data-crunching power, but they are much less confident in the prospects for perfect predictability. PHILIP TETLOCK: We want a lot of things from our forecasters, and accuracy is often not the first thing. These experts were then asked about a wide array of subjects. Once I'd gotten that framework into my head, I couldn't let it go. Forecast, measure, revise: it is the surest path to seeing better., Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. (2000). Conservatives are more receptive to climate science that involves green-tech innovation than those that entail restrictions (e.g. Start by observing, asking questions, and listening. Optimism and big-picture thinking will help you sell your business idea. This is the mindset of the scientist. The test group outperformed the control group significantly and tended to pivot twice as often. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. When promoting your idea, you were being a Preacher - arguing your point of view based on a set of prior beliefs. We seek peak happiness (intensity), rather than small, steady positive happiness (frequency). How politicized is political psychology and is there anything we should do about it? The book mentions how experts are often no better at making predictions than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable. Philip Tetlock: It virtually always influences how people make decisions, but it's not always good. Dont persecute a preacher in front of their own congregation. The Good Judgment Project was first developed as an entry into a competition for accurately forecasting geopolitical events, which was being hosted by The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity.12Despite the impressive competition, The Good Judgment Project won the tournament. Example: How does a bicycle, piano or appliance work? Enjoyed the inclusion of visuals: humorous cartoons, diagrams, and charts. The expert political judgment project also compared the accuracy track records of "foxes" and "hedgehogs" (two personality types identified in Isaiah Berlin's 1950 essay "The Hedgehog and the Fox"). Even criticize them. Plan ahead to determine where they can find common ground. A vaccine whisperer is called in. Apparently, "even the most opinionated hedgehogs become more circumspect"[9] when they feel their accuracy will soon be compared to that of ideological rivals. Since 2011, he has been the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. In practice, they often diverge.. Optimism and. Tetlock was born in 1954 in Toronto, Canada and completed his undergraduate work at the University of British Columbia and doctoral work at Yale University, obtaining his PhD in 1979. Expert Political Judgment. Preachers: We pontificate and promote our ideas. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. This research interest led him to discover that the predictions most people including experts make about future outcomes are not usually significantly better than chance. There are two primary models, the cognitive model that treats behavior as implicit, and the behavioral model that treats . Structuring accountability systems in organizations: Key trade-offs and critical unknowns. David Dunning: The first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club is that you dont know youre a member of the Dunning-Kruger club.. We will stand on any soapbox to sell it with tremendous enthusiasm. The tournaments solicited roughly 28,000 predictions about the future and found the forecasters were often only slightly more accurate than chance, and usually worse than basic extrapolation algorithms, especially on longerrange forecasts three to five years out. Psychological safety is not a matter of relaxing standardsits fostering a climate of respect, trust, and opennessits the foundation of a learning culture.. 9 Since then, Tetlock has taught courses in The incident was a powerful reminder that we need to reevaluate our assumptions and determine how we arrived at them. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. Stop trying to convince others about the right answer. We risk overemphasizing pleasure at the expense of purpose. Do prosecute a competitors product. They give examples of successful and unsuccessful decision-making processes, none more diametrically opposed as two US Army missions. Wagner Dodge made a quick decision to build an escape fire and lay down in the charred area while the wildfire raged around him. By contrast, System 1 is largely a stranger to us. As social beings, we are motivated to seek belonging and status. What should we eat for dinner?). Counterfactual thinking: considering alternative realities, imagining different circumstances and outcomes. Philip Tetlock (author of 'Super-Forecasting', reviewed in this column) has a useful description of the mindsets we tend to slip into, to avoid rethinking ideas. Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock review the not-too-promising record of expert predictions of political and social phenomena. In P.E. He covers a variety of topics, including the qualities he looks for in a good leader, whether it is becoming more difficult to make predictions about the world, and what we are able to infer from political speeches. One finding: framing issues as binary (i.e. Psychologist Peter T. Coleman experiments to learn how to reverse-engineer successful conversations between people about polarizing issues. How Can we Know? The most confident are often the least competent. Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. Actively seek out reasons why you might be wrong. The very notion of applying group stereotypes to individuals is absurd., Chapter 7: Vaccine Whisperers and Mild-Mannered Interrogators. Tetlock P. and Mellers B. Challenge network: A trusted group of peers to point out blind spots and errors in our thinking. Defensive bolstering of prior positions? Released in 2015, it was aNew York TimesBestseller and brought this concept into the mainstream by making it accessible to behavioral economists and the general population alike. American Psychologist. Tetlock, P.E., &Lebow, R.N. System 2 is the familiar realm of conscious thought. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Blind adherence to these tools can result in poor outcomes: inflexible overconfidence, bad decision-making, avoidable errors, and failures to learn and grow. Tetlock has received awards from scientific societies and foundations, including the American Psychological Association, American Political Science Association, American Association for the Advancement of Science, International Society of Political Psychology, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the National Academy of Sciences and the MacArthur, Sage, Grawemeyer, and Carnegie Foundations. When he is pretty sure of how it is going to work, and he tells you, This is the way its going to work, Ill bet, he still is in some doubt. It starts with showing more interest in other peoples interests rather than trying to judge their status or prove our own., Many communicators try to make themselves look smart. Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. Intelligent management of intelligence analysis: Escaping the blame game by signaling commitment to trans-ideological epistemic values. Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Dont Know. When does accountability promote mindless conformity? Do recognize the ideas and the roles being applied and operate within them. Motivational interviewing: The best approach to changing someones mind is to help that person make the change on their own. Imposter syndrome: Phenomenon where competence exceeds confidence. Richard Feynman (physicist): You must not fool yourselfand you are the easiest person to fool.. Jeff Bezos: People who are right a lot listen a lot, and they change their mind a lot. "Everyone who plays poker knows you can either fold, call, or raise [a bet]. I was most interested in the ideas from Part 1 and wish he focused on those more. We want to think of this idea when leading, when following, when making sales, when planning our marketing, and anywhere else we are dealing with the thoughts, opinions, and values of others. And it is of paramount importance, in order to make progress, that we recognize this ignorance and this doubt. Ernest Hemingway: You cant get away from yourself by moving from one place to another., Our identities are open systems, and so are our lives. Phil Tetlock's (political scientist) mindset model: Preachers, prosecutors, and politicians. Strong opinions like stereotypes and prejudice are less likely to be reconsidered. The preacher - this is where we are the 'enlightened one' who knows the answer. Professionally, its all about setting the table and/or recognizing the table thats been set. Think Again is structured into three main parts. ), Research in organizational behavior (vol. And if you absolutely mustand you better have a good reasondisobey them., The Government-funded research of the Good Judgment Project has manifested into a public platform called Good Judgment Open, where they recruit talented people to be trained to become a superforecaster.13They also have a global network of superforecasters who offer analytic services. Harish uses a powerful combination of techniquescommon understandings, non-judgmental questions, flexible thinkingto win over some in the audience. Part I: Individual Rethinking 2006. Tetlock is a psychologisthe teaches at Berkeleyand his conclusions are based on a long-term study that he began twenty years ago. Department of Psychology / Stephen A. Levin Building / 425 S. University Ave / Philadelphia, PA 19104-6018Phone: (215) 898-7300 / web@psych.upenn.edu, Welton Chang [Psychology Graduate Student], 2023 The Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania, https://psychology.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/Tetlock%20CV%20Updated%20feb%202%2. 1 Department of Political Science, George Washington University, 2201 G. Street NW, Washington, DC 20052; e-mail: jimg@gwu.edu; 2 Departments of Psychology and Political Science, Ohio State University, 142 Townshend Hall, 1885 Neil Avenue, Columbus, Ohio 43210; e-mail: tetlock.1@osu.edu. De-biasing judgment and choice. Scientist: Grant appends this professional worldview to Tetlocks mindset models. I understand the advantages of your recommendation. In the most comprehensive analysis of expert prediction ever conducted, Philip Tetlock assembled a group of some 280 anonymous volunteerseconomists, political scientists, intelligence analysts . [Adam Grant]: Two decades ago, I read a brilliant paper by Phil Tetlock, who introduced me to this idea of thinking like a preacher, a prosecutor or a politician. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. . Reply to symposium on Expert political judgment: How good is it? Pp. It requires us to admit that the facts may have changed, that what was once right may now be wrong.. Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. In this hour-long interview, Tetlock offers insight into what people look for in a forecaster everything from reassurance to entertainment and what makes a good forecaster it requires more than just intelligence. (2004). He's soft-spoken, gestures frequently with his hands, and often talks in . They challenged each other's thinking and this allowed them to improve their ideas through a continuous feedback loop. Think about how this plays out in politics. He struck up a conversation with a white man who was a member of the Ku Klux Klan. We can embrace them when theyre within their domains. Focusing on results might be good for short-term performance, but it can be an obstacle to long-term learning.. Task conflict: Arguments over specific ideas and opinions (e.g. The mission was aborted and Luca barely escaped drowning in his spacesuit due to a mechanical failure that wasnt properly diagnosed. He leads Marie-Helene to decide for herself to vaccinate her child. caps on vehicle emissions). [24][25][26][27] Rather, humans prefer to believe that they have sacred values that provide firm foundations for their moral-political opinions. The interviewer serves as a guide, not a leader or advisor. *These modes run throughout Adam Grants book, Think Again. For THE book on predictions and decisions in the face of uncertainty, see Philip Tetlocks Superforecasting., Your email address will not be published. Author sees the idea of best practices as misguided. Forecasters with the biggest news media profiles were also especially bad. This results in more extreme beliefs. Wilbur Wright: Honest argument is merely a process of mutually picking the beams and motes out of each others eyes so both can see clearly.. He has written several non-fiction books at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior, including Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction; Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? We distinguish ourselves from our adversariesthey are everything we are not. Psychological Review, 109, 451-472. Values are core principles like excellence, generosity, freedom, fairness, integrity, etc. Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive Styles and Historical Reasoning. Luca assumed the problem was a leak with his drinking bag (it wasnt). The book also profiles several "superforecasters." Make your next conversation a better one. Superforecasting is an informative, well-researched book, while remaining highly accessible. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 43, 195-209. And how do experts respond to confirmation/disconfirmation of expectations? We can strategize from there and know which mode, preacher, prosecutor, or politician, to operate from and to. Tetlock is a psychology professor and researcher who is fascinated by decision-making processes and the attributes required for good judgment. Some smokejumpers held on to their equipment (as they were trained to do) despite the added weight (possibly) preventing them from surviving. Isaac Asimov: Great discoveries often begin not with Eureka! but with Thats funny. He argues that most political psychologists tacitly assume that, relative to political science, psychology is the more basic discipline in their hybrid field. Performance accountability evaluates projects, individuals and teams based on outcomes. The overview effect: Astronauts experience space travel gain a unique understanding of humanity. American Political Science Review, 95, 829-843. Its easy to notice when others need to change their opinions, but difficult for us to develop the same habit for ourselves. When we dedicate ourselves to a plan and it isnt going as we hoped, our first instinct isnt usually to rethink it. This talk given by Tetlock goes along with his 2015 book,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Opening story: Orville and Wilbur Wright and the chemistry the two brothers had as intellectual partners. Additionally, Good Judgment offers consulting services that are incredibly valuable for policymakers, who need to anticipate the global consequences of their decisions.7, Foresight isnt a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. . Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? He asked the man How can you hate me when you dont even know me? The men became friends and the KKK member eventually renounced his membership. and comparison of domestic politics across countries. Most of the other smokejumpers perished. And only when we are proven wrong so clearly that we can no longer deny it to ourselves will we adjust our mental models of the worldproducing a clearer picture of reality. In order to develop The Good Judgment Project, Tetlock worked alongside Barbara Mellers, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. We constantly rationalize and justify our beliefs. Comparative politics is the study. ebook Price: $69.95/54.00 ISBN: 9780691027913 Published: Sep 8, 1996 The sender of information is often not its source. Perspective-seeking is more useful than perspective-taking. A rivalry exists whenever we reserve special animosity for a group we see as competing with us for resources or threatening our identities.. It is the realm of automatic perceptual and cognitive operationslike those you are running right now to transform the print on this page into a meaningful sentence or to hold the book while reaching for a glass and taking a sip. He dubbed these people superforecasters. If we want to gain alignment we have to understand where everyone is starting from. [12][13] In his earlier work in this area, he showed that some forms of accountability can make humans more thoughtful and constructively self-critical (reducing the likelihood of biases or errors), whereas other forms of accountability can make us more rigid and defensive (mobilizing mental effort to defend previous positions and to criticize critics).

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